Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.073754 0.085080 0.097952 0.113742 0.132697 0.154855 0.182914
2025-11-02 0.055295 0.068429 0.084691 0.106563 0.135602 0.173394 0.227239
2025-11-09 0.042078 0.055134 0.072488 0.097724 0.134318 0.186800 0.270336
2025-11-16 0.034658 0.047882 0.066666 0.096119 0.142725 0.216539 0.348698
2025-11-23 0.028906 0.041874 0.061435 0.094327 0.150890 0.249655 0.449083
2025-11-30 0.024895 0.037701 0.058155 0.094962 0.163728 0.296467 0.601323
2025-12-07 0.021593 0.034045 0.055003 0.095189 0.176497 0.349850 0.804697
2025-12-14 0.018431 0.030073 0.050568 0.092115 0.182400 0.393406 1.022845
2025-12-21 0.015210 0.025475 0.044185 0.083804 0.174961 0.404675 1.169144
2025-12-28 0.013527 0.023359 0.042026 0.083668 0.186385 0.470808 1.562263
2026-01-04 0.012322 0.021935 0.040946 0.085670 0.204283 0.567705 2.205211
2026-01-11 0.011158 0.020404 0.039370 0.086190 0.219009 0.667336 3.041901
2026-01-18 0.010105 0.018966 0.037802 0.086584 0.234729 0.788028 4.290313
2026-01-25 0.009022 0.017307 0.035456 0.084416 0.242200 0.887480 5.723177
2026-02-01 0.007959 0.015540 0.032559 0.080050 0.240935 0.952491 7.167663
2026-02-08 0.007332 0.014631 0.031527 0.080722 0.258400 1.129693 10.553789
2026-02-15 0.006753 0.013749 0.030403 0.080864 0.274566 1.325878 15.561539
2026-02-22 0.006322 0.013143 0.029869 0.082739 0.299572 1.618343 25.051922
2026-03-01 0.005913 0.012532 0.029210 0.084060 0.323703 1.954945 40.785953
2026-03-08 0.005431 0.011681 0.027764 0.082316 0.332910 2.203285 59.909412
2026-03-15 0.004830 0.010468 0.025138 0.075719 0.314405 2.188120 69.407409
2026-03-22 0.004534 0.009981 0.024476 0.076154 0.333969 2.586464 116.447597
2026-03-29 0.004323 0.009682 0.024301 0.078413 0.366097 3.219045 230.169333